The appearance, in last December, of the epidemic due to a new strain of coronavirus, called Covid-19, and its evolution, in barely three months, into a pandemic swarming worldwide, is anything but a foreseeable event. However, a prospective study drawn up by the CIA presented, in November 2008, a detailed « scenario » whose developments espouse in an extremely disconcerting way the disturbing turn of events since the appearance of the first cases of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China!
Of course, there is no question here of nourishing any conspiracy thesis. Because the study in question was not secret. It was the fourth edition of a prospective study by the CIA, the aim of which is to predict the main developments that the world situation may experience during the next two decades.
Already in 2004, the previous edition of this study, entitled « Mapping the global future », intended to draw up the state of the world by 2020, succeeded in predicting the establishment of a «new caliphate», ten years before the appearance of ISIS!
Prospecting for the coronavirus pandemic that is currently sweeping the world is one of the «scenarios» mentioned in the 2008 edition of this study, entitled «Global trends 2025: A transformed world». You will find there, on page 75, a box entitled: «Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic»
The «scenario» mentioned does not only refer to the family of coronaviruses, it even specifies that it could be various strains of influenza such as the coronavirus of SARS, but Covid-19 is one of these strains (the scientific name of Covid-19 is SARS-CoV-2)!
What does this « scenario » drawn up by the CIA foresee concerning the appearance and the evolution of this pandemic?
At first, he predicted that «the emergence of a novel, highly transmissible, and virulent human respiratory illness for which there are no adequate countermeasures could initiate a global pandemic ». Then, concerning the nature and the infectious characteristics of this pandemic, the «scenario» specifies that «the emergence of a pandemic disease depends upon the natural genetic mutation or reassortment of currently circulating disease strains or the emergence of a new pathogen into the human population. Experts consider highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains, such as H5N1, to be likely candidates for such a transformation, but other pathogens – such as the SARS coronavirus or other influenza strains – also have this potential»
As for the reasons for the spread of such a virus on a global scale, the «scenario» warns that «if a pandemic disease emerges, it probably will first occur in an area marked by high population density and close association between humans and animals, such as many areas of China and Southeast Asia, where human populations live in close proximity to livestock. Unregulated animal husbandry practices could allow a zoonotic disease such as H5N1 to circulate in livestock populations – increasing the opportunity for mutation into a strain with pandemic potential. To propagate effectively, a disease would have to be transmitted to areas of higher population density.
As for the reasons for the spread of such a virus on a global scale, the «scenario» warns that «under such a scenario, inadequate health-monitoring capability within the nation of origin probably would prevent early identification of the disease. Slow public health response would delay the realization that a highly transmissible pathogen had emerged. Weeks might pass before definitive laboratory results could be obtained confirming the existence of a disease with pandemic potential. In the interim, clusters of the disease would begin to appear in towns and cities within Southeast Asia. Despite limits imposed on international travel, travelers with mild symptoms or who were asymptomatic could carry the disease to other continents »
In view of the disconcerting precision with which this «scenario», drawn up in 2008, describes the events unfolding before our eyes since last December, the most worrying question is to know what it predicts about the future developments of the current Covid-19 pandemic?
On the geopolitical level, the «scenario» warns that «if a pandemic disease emerges by 2025, internal and cross-border tension and conflict will become more likely as nations struggle – with degraded capabilities – to control the movement of populations seeking to avoid infection or maintain access to resources»
As for the health consequences of this pandemic, the predictions of the «scenario » send shock waves through the veins: «waves of new cases would occur every few months. The absence of an effective vaccine and near universal lack of immunity would render populations vulnerable to infection. In this worst- case, tens to hundreds of millions of Americans within the US Homeland would become ill and deaths would mount into the tens of millions. Outside the US, critical infrastructure degradation and economic loss on a global scale would result as approximately a third of the worldwide population became ill and hundreds of millions died»
The only downside to this terrifying prediction: the «scenario» specifies that this is the «worst case ». Fortunately, as Claudel said, the worst is never certain!