Beware of polls that seem bent in advance. If there is a lesson to be learned from this French singularity which consists in electing the President of the Republic by universal suffrage, it is this one. These dear ”refractory Gauls” take malicious pleasure in denying predictions, refusing the idea that the media, analysts or polls – these tools for measuring democratic debate, which they moreover love – can ”impose’ ‘ the fatality of an unavoidable electoral scenario.
Issues related to Islam are at the heart of the presidential campaign. In addition to the growing fears caused by the terrorist threat, since the jihadist attacks of 2015, there has been a widespread awareness of the dangers that can arise from communal and separatist excesses.
Practising Catholics represent barely 10% of the French electorate. Nevertheless, they are the object of all the covetousness in the race for the presidential elections next April. Although they do not weigh much in quantitative terms, their positioning – on the border between a traditional right-wing, which is stagnating in opinion, and a national and identity-based right-wing, which is making strong progress – makes them a pivotal segment of the electorate around which the balance of power between the three right-wing and far-right candidates will be articulated. Thus, unless there is a surprise from a left that is more divided than ever, it is on the basis of the orientations of the Catholic vote that the decision will be made as to which of Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen or Eric Zemmour will reach the second round of the presidential election.