Former editor-in-chief of Spectacle du Monde, Gérald Olivier is a keen observer of American politics. He is the author of Sur la route de la Maison-Blanche : le dictionnaire des élections présidentielles américaines (Jean Picollec Éditeur, 2020). In this interview, he analyzes the repercussions of Donald Trump’s reelection for the United States and the rest of the world.

– What does Donald Trump’s reelection signify?

– Gérald Olivier: Trump is a New Yorker. He is a businessman who grew up in Queens. Queens is the small suburb; I would say the second zone of New York. It is not Manhattan: it does not have the luxury or the class. But it’s not the Bronx either, which is the underclass. Queens is a small middle class that is not necessarily overly ambitious. In fact, this is the criticism he leveled against his father. His father became wealthy in Queens, and Trump wanted to become rich and conquer Manhattan. He went far beyond that. He is an extremely ambitious businessman who believes in himself. He also believes in the country that allowed him to build his fortune and achieve the destiny he has had. And he realized over time that this destiny he received help from was no longer easily accessible to the average American. Not all Americans want to become Donald Trump, but all want the freedom to make their lives what they wish. In this sense, he connects with the American people and embodies the American dream. He is not necessarily the personification of the American dream, but one of the meanings of that dream. Trump wants to make that dream accessible again to the masses who, in the 20th century, found it naturally attainable because American prosperity meant anyone could live their own American dream.

– What can Trump realistically achieve from these promises in terms of immigration, buying power, or international politics?

– It is not as easy as it seems. But Trump will never admit that. He will always speak in blunt, extremely simplified, even simplistic terms. His first priority will be to restore America’s sovereignty. It is important to understand that a country without borders does not have sovereignty. So, for him, the first thing will be to restore American sovereignty by securing the borders to stop illegal immigration. Illegal immigration, not legal immigration. His second priority will be to focus on the economy. To make the American dream accessible again, he will need to stop inflation and restart the economic machine, particularly through a key sector in the United States: energy production. The U.S. has the largest reserves of fossil fuels in the world. Trump will not hesitate to use them. He will flood the world with oil and shale gas. This will have the immediate effect of lowering the cost of these resources and making industries like automobile manufacturing, among other key sectors of the U.S. economy, economically workable again. This brings us to his third priority: boosting American industry through a form of economic protectionism by imposing tariffs on non-American goods. Finally, his fourth priority will be to deal with world affairs. This will not be easy because he does not control all the cards. He must rely on partners, some of whom are rivals, like China, and other allies, like Europe. And since Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine, he will inevitably have to manage the complex relationships between the U.S. and Russia, between Europe and Russia, and between the U.S. and Europe, particularly through NATO. This will require a lot of effort and accommodation. But Trump is someone who likes to get his hands dirty!