Chloé Morin, a political scientist and essayist, served as the director of the Opinion Observatory at the Jean Jaurès Foundation (2017-2020) and was an advisor to two left-wing Prime Ministers, Jean-Marc Ayrault and Manuel Valls (2012-2016). She is the author of several essays, including “The Unmovables of the Republic: You Will Never See Them, but They Govern” (Éditions de l’Aube, 2020), “Populism to the Rescue of Democracy?” (Gallimard, 2021), and “We Get the Politicians We Deserve” (Fayard, 2022). In this interview, she analyzes the consequences of the censure of Michel Barnier’s government.

– How did we reach this deadlock that led to the censure of Michel Barnier’s government?

– Today, when we look at public opinion, it is clear that the French largely hold Emmanuel Macron responsible for this situation. He is accountable for the policies implemented over the past seven years, and he was the one who chose dissolution. However, if the economy worsens or we face a financial crisis, will the actors of this deadlock – especially Marine Le Pen – not also be blamed? That stays an unknown.

Marine Le Pen is betting that she won’t be held responsible, even if interest rates rise, businesses fail, or the economic situation deteriorates. It’s a gamble, and only time will tell if it pays off.

– Will Michel Barnier also be held responsible for this deadlock?

– I have always believed that the current deadlock has two major causes, both electoral. First, the composition of the National Assembly is likely to change within six months, with voters returning to the polls. This assembly cannot pass measures as unpopular as those proposed by Michel Barnier.

Second, from the outset, Michel Barnier’s mission was complicated by the presidential ambitions of various actors for 2027. Since Emmanuel Macron will not run again, the race is wide open. Many are already positioning themselves, and those aiming for the presidency do not want to be associated with today’s policies. Consequently, they have not come to Michel Barnier’s rescue.

– What are the most likely scenarios for the post-Barnier period?

– The idea of reinstating Michel Barnier seems inconceivable to me. Both Marine Le Pen and the left would argue: “Are you kidding us? You censure a Prime Minister and then reappoint the same one?” It seems impossible.

The ideal solution for Emmanuel Macron – something he already expressed last summer – would be to form a coalition ranging from the Socialists or the Greens to the Republicans. This would be the only way to avoid being at the mercy of either La France Insoumise or the National Rally.

– Is such a coalition possible?

– It seems highly improbable to me. Again, the reason is electoral: Socialist deputies depend on an alliance with La France Insoumise (LFI) for their reelection. As long as we have a two-round majority voting system, the Socialists will need this alliance to secure their seats.

The only scenario that could break this dependency would be the introduction of proportional representation. Michel Barnier had proposed and committed to this, as it is also a demand from the National Rally. Otherwise, the Socialists will never risk governing alongside the Republicans, former Macronists, or the rest of the left without LFI, as they would alienate the party crucial to their reelection.