For now, these are said to be “discussions whose outlines remain very vague,” aiming to define “a collective security clause that would allow Ukraine to secure the support of all its European partners, the British, and the United States, ready to act should it be attacked again.” The “security guarantee” granted to Ukraine under this framework would be “ratified by the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom,” but “would not involve NATO.”

According to our sources, European reactions are largely cautious regarding the “credibility of such an alliance,” due to the “geopolitical shifts of the American president.” Consulted on the matter, the French general staff suggested to President Macron that reliable mechanisms should be required for “the permanent alert status of the countries involved and access to U.S. satellite and electronic intelligence in real time.” Furthermore, European and British intelligence officials suggest that “if this agreement is signed, it should include a clause within the ‘security guarantee’ offered to Kyiv prohibiting any hybrid warfare actions aimed at destabilizing Ukraine.”

For his part, during his phone conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky, the American president raised an additional “security guarantee”: “If, under the minerals agreement signed between Washington and Kyiv, American engineers and personnel were to be permanently based in Ukraine, Russia would no longer be able to attack it.”

What Concessions for Moscow?

The question remains: what concessions will Putin demand in order for Russia to accept these international security guarantees offered to Ukraine?

According to an unofficial document issued by the Russian delegation and used as a working basis during the Trump-Putin summit, the Russian demands consist of two parts: one described as “military,” the other referred to as “grouped proposals.”

The military section contains two Russian demands:

– “The complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian armed forces and all other Ukrainian armed formations from the territory of the Russian Federation, including the People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson”;

– “The withdrawal of all troops to a distance from the borders of the Russian Federation to be determined by the parties concerned, in accordance with approved provisions.”

As for the “grouped proposals,” they include five points:

– “Prohibition of the redeployment of Ukrainian armed forces and other Ukrainian military formations, except for movements related to their withdrawal, at a distance from the borders of the Russian Federation to be determined by the parties concerned”;

– “Immediate halt to mobilization and the beginning of demobilization”;

– “Cessation of foreign arms deliveries and all foreign military assistance to Ukraine, including in the fields of satellite communications and intelligence”;

– “Withdrawal of all third-country military presence from Ukrainian territory and cessation of the involvement of foreign specialists in military operations on the Ukrainian side”;

– “Guarantees of Ukraine’s renunciation of any sabotage or subversive activities against the Russian Federation and its citizens.”

A Conference on European Security?

To reassure Europe (the European Union and the United Kingdom), excluded from the talks with Putin, Trump raised with European leaders the idea of an “international conference on security in Europe with Russia’s participation.”

To achieve this, Trump submitted to the Europeans a “vision” that several European sources describe as a “roadmap” in three stages:

– Within the framework of the “peace treaty” negotiated with Russia, Kyiv would completely withdraw from the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for a Russian commitment to freeze the front lines in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

– Russia would then agree that the United States and Europeans provide a system of security guarantees to Ukraine, but without NATO membership.

– Finally, a conference on European security would be organized, at the initiative of the United States, with Russia’s participation.