Emmanuel Razavi

There’s a compelling and increasingly accepted theory that the Islamic Republic, Russia, Turkey, and Iran—heirs of ancient empires—are forging a quasi-apocalyptic alliance that threatens our democracies as well as the stability of the free world.

In his book, Jean-François Colosimo highlights the religious undertones within these authoritarian regimes that fuel their nationalist and expansionist agendas. Whether it’s the resurgence of Orthodox traditions in Russia, Erdogan envisioning himself as the Caliph of all Caliphs in Turkey, Xi Jinping’s admiration for Confucius (a thinker whose works Mao once burned), or the Shia leader Ali Khamenei in Iran waging a civilization war against the West begun 45 years ago, Colosimo illustrates how these despots have reclaimed religious influence as a form of both spiritual and military rearmament.

Colosimo asserts: “We didn’t see it coming. Then, we couldn’t believe our eyes. But it happened. The 19th-century empires—Tsarist, Ottoman, Persian, Qing, and Mughal—seemed gone forever. In reality, they were merely hibernating. They have re-emerged, radically transformed (…).” He criticizes the West as arrogant and outdated, accusing its powers of turning a blind eye, convinced that “trade, the new opium of the people, would soothe everything.” In short, the trade-based ideology, devoid of spirituality or cultural vision and reduced to an economic model, has anesthetized Europe and the United States, exposing them to threats from totalitarian states and the hegemonic fantasies of their leaders.

In his latest book, “The Maze of the Lost,” Franco-Lebanese writer and permanent secretary of the French Academy, Amin Maalouf, explores the roots of the war between Russia and Ukraine—a “devastating war erupting in Europe’s heart, rekindling the worst traumas of the past.” Maalouf warns that this conflict marks “a major upheaval already affecting our way of life and challenging the very foundations of our civilization.” He cautions about both the blindness and impotence of the West, saying, “The war between Russia and Ukraine reflects the West’s relative decline and may be merely the first chapter of a confrontation between the United States and China.”

Reflecting on the East-West divide, he recalls that Japan was the first Asian country to challenge Western supremacy in its 1905 conflict with Russia, and how Japan’s victory inspired hope and a model for other Eastern countries.

But does recalling this history necessarily mean that the West, especially Europe, is doomed to inevitable decline?

Not necessarily.

The West is Less Fragile Than It Seems

The old empires that now threaten the West face such deep crises that their models may ultimately implode. Take the Islamic Republic of Iran, so quick to threaten anyone who dares oppose its expansionist model. Week by week, Iran appears divided between religious conservatives and mafia-like reformists, a nation crippled by protests, with half the population struggling to eat twice a day.

The Mullahs, once masters of asymmetric warfare, can no longer even protect their proxies, supposedly acting in their interests. On September 18, Hezbollah members’ walkie-talkies exploded in Beirut’s southern suburbs as well as in southern and eastern Lebanon, orchestrated by Mossad following similar attacks on the militia’s pagers, resulting in over 2,800 injuries and dozens of deaths. Would a truly powerful empire, threatening the West, fail so badly in protecting its own forces as Iran’s regime does? Certainly not.

The same goes for China, often depicted as one of the great threats of this century. Fragile due to a severe demographic crisis—so much so that its population is shrinking—and increasingly driven by a youth seeking meaning, can China truly wage a war that might lead to its downfall? Threatening is one thing; acting is another.

The example of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates just how difficult it is to secure a military victory, even against an ostensibly weaker opponent.

As for Turkey, socially divided by its president’s megalomania, what strength does it genuinely wield, despite its army, beyond playing the Islamist infiltration card in Europe and the United States?

At heart, what most threatens the West against these Eastern tyrants may not be the tyrants themselves but the weakness and short-sightedness of Western elites.

Isn’t the core problem for Europe and the United States a form of self-deconstruction, almost institutionalized in recent years, that prevents them from asserting their values against despots?

Colosimo and Maalouf are undoubtedly right to highlight this troubling reality, driven by a humanistic vision they seek to preserve. Yet, amid their alarming conclusions, one might also consider that the West, based on its geopolitical history, might be less fragile than it appears. It has survived economic crises and two world wars while maintaining a political system—democracy—that remains the least imperfect. And it continues to foster a world where freedom and equality, though threatened by Islamism and political extremism, still offer remarkable potential for progress.

Certainly, if it continues indulging in self-criticism, the West may be consumed by despots incapable of uniting their own people.