André Kaspi “These elections will deepen the American divide”

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US Elections

André Kaspi “These elections will deepen the American divide”

3 November 2024 Interviews 131126

The American presidential election is like no other, with a campaign full of twists and turns. We asked historian André Kaspi, a specialist in the history of the United States, to shed some light on the subject.

– For someone who has followed and analysed so many key moments in American history, is this election really unprecedented?

– André Kaspi: Two spectacular aspects should be highlighted. Donald Trump has been a candidate since his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, which means he has been campaigning for four years. He was previously President from 2017 to 2021, so he has been campaigning for at least eight years. From the point of view of the Democrats, the unprecedented element was the withdrawal in July of Joe Biden, until then a candidate for re-election, in favour of his vice-president Kamala Harris. There was no primary to choose her: she was nominated by the outgoing President. Since July, she has been working hard to raise her profile, define her programme and truly embody the Democratic Party. This situation simply highlights the divide between the two Americas. On the one hand, a Republican America that supports Donald Trump by a majority, but not unanimously. On the other, a Democratic America, itself divided between the left wing and the rest of the party. This is indeed an unusual campaign: the candidates are different from those who usually run for president. The circumstances in which this campaign is taking place are therefore exceptional.

– Who stands to gain from these circumstances and fractures?

– The divide will have an impact on the results, but it will have an even greater impact on the post-5 November period. I am not sure that the two parties will accept easily accept defeat. If Donald Trump is defeated, he will once again raise a storm. Kamala Harris may not be leading the protests, but the divisions that are tearing American society apart will be more keenly felt. Elections will not resolve the divide. They will make it worse.

– What are the issues at stake in the electoral battle?

– The key issues are the economy, price rises, the industrial balance sheet, and foreign relations. This is a battleground for two Americas. This does not mean that there are no other elements. In particular, abortion and immigration. The Republicans see the Democrats as Americans who have lost their sense of patriotism, who have been manipulated by bizarre ideologies known as wokism. On the other hand, the Democrats consider the Republicans to be reactionaries, old southerners who have not digested the Civil War, who are only interested in money and who practice the most extreme religion. Themes of hostility towards the other party are found on both sides. It is a debate, not about what America will be, but about what it must not be. It is a conflict between two irreconcilable camps.

– Against this backdrop, some established positions seem to be shifting. As a result, many people vote where they are not expected to. Minorities, for example, no longer necessarily vote Democrat…

– In fact, around 20% of blacks voted for Trump and 25% or more of Latinos voted for him. Even the minorities are divided. Take the case of the Jewish minority, which is not very large in numerical terms – less than 2% of the population – but is particularly important in sociological terms. American Jews have voted Democrat since Franklin Roosevelt, at 85 or 90%. Today, this is still true, with some nuances. According to the latest polls, 68% of Jews vote Democrat and 25% for Donald Trump. Both candidates have reasons to do whatever is necessary to attract the Jewish vote or to try to show that they understand the situation of Jews in the United States, but also that of Israel

The Republicans see the Democrats as Americans who have lost their sense of patriotism, who are manipulated by bizarre ideologies known as wokism. The Democrats see the Republicans as reactionaries, old southerners who have not come to terms with the Civil War, who are only interested in money.

– What impact has the war in the Middle East had on the vote, and also the war in Ukraine?

– Not to mention the prospect, perhaps, of a war in East Asia against China! The United States is still the only power that cannot exclude itself from international theatres. The main scenes in this theatre take place in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Pacific Ocean. Americans themselves are not passionate about foreign policy. It is not this aspect that makes the difference between the candidates. But today, in the specific case of the Middle East, there is a division within the Democratic Party, with the left wing wanting a policy more favourable to the Palestinians – as it has demonstrated on the campuses. The party’s candidate must therefore take this division into account. The Republican candidate, on the other hand, is looking to attract voters who are disappointed by or hostile to Democratic positions: minorities are, as a result, disorientated. Foreign policy therefore plays a more key role than usual in this election. The Republicans believe that the United States has helped the Ukrainians far too much. If Trump is elected, it is likely that this aid will be slowed down, perhaps even stopped. One thing is still constant: America continues to oppose China, its main commercial competitor, its main political adversary, and its main military threat.

– What other international aims are the two candidates pursuing?

– Kamala Harris will continue Joe Biden’s foreign policy. As Vice President, she is solely responsible for decisions taken by the White House. It cannot oppose it. It can simply influence Biden’s choices, for example in the Middle East. But in principle, whether in relations with Ukraine or China, Kamala Harris will follow the same path. For Donald Trump, it is different. He repeated that he would stop the war in Ukraine in the space of a few days, or even a few hours. In the Middle East, he negotiated and obtained the signature of the Abraham Accords when he was in power. He has strengthened the United States’ ties with Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Gulf states. His attitude towards Iran is certainly more aggressive than Biden’s has been. He has always criticised the Democrats for their conciliatory attitude. But it is hard to guess on what he will do, given the unpredictability of current events.

– What is the attitude of the two candidates towards Europe?

– The European Community does not pose insoluble problems for the United States. If anything, it is a commercial competitor. But when it comes to European defence, Donald Trump is truly clear. In his view, America would stop protecting Europe if Europe did not pay. He feels that she should be much more involved in his defence. If it does not, it will lose the support of the United States. With Biden’s more flexible stance, we would certainly see greater rapprochement with the Democrats. The Republicans are more nationalistic than their opponents.

BioExpress

André Kaspi, historian, and essayist is a leading specialist on the United States, to which he has devoted numerous works. These include “La Vie politique aux États-Unis” (Armand Colin, 1970), “Kennedy, les mille jours d’un président” (Armand Colin, 1993), “Les Juifs américains”, Plon, 2008), “Barack Obama, la grande désillusion” (Plon, 2012), “Franklin D. Roosevelt” (Tempus Perrin, 2012), “La Nation armée, les armes au cœur de la culture américaine” (L’Observatoire, 2019).