With a career spanning more than 40 years, which has taken him to various theatres of war in Europe and Africa, Belgian General Guy Buchsenschmidt has extensive military and geostrategic expertise. In this interview, he explains why he fears a new ‘Verdun’ in the war in Ukraine that has been raging for over two years.
Interview By Malika Madi– More than two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, how do you see the outcome of this conflict?
– General Guy Buchsenschmidt: My main fear is that we will get bogged down. Like Verdun. If the Ukrainian defence line gives way, the conquest of Ukraine will result in a bloodbath, with an “occupation” that will be met with organised, determined and probably externally supported resistance (similar to what happened in France during the Second World War). Occupying Ukraine, a democratic country aspiring to join NATO and the European Union, is a challenge. For the Russians, it would be a second Afghanistan. But we are all too quick to forget the lessons of the past.
– Does Russia want to wipe Ukraine off the face of the earth? And what price do you think she is prepared to pay to achieve her goals?
– Russia does not want to wipe Ukraine off the face of the earth. Putin simply wants to recreate an “Empire”, knowing that Ukraine is historically the cradle of the empire he has been dreaming of since the disintegration of the USSR. To achieve this, Putin is prepared to do anything, even if it means sacrificing thousands of young people who are often ill-equipped, poorly trained and unconvinced of the usefulness of a conflict whose ins and outs they do not understand.
– Several Eastern European countries, such as Poland, are stepping up their military equipment. Do you agree with some observers that Putin will not be satisfied with Ukraine?
– Clearly, setting foot in a NATO country would be tantamount to crossing a red line. NATO’s partners must not, if necessary, make the same mistake as the French and British did in 1939. Putin knows this. He also knows that in the face of NATO, he is a paper tiger (whatever anyone says). There is, of course, the nuclear weapons argument. But now we’re crossing a threshold I can’t even imagine.
– A few weeks ago, Putin mentioned the possibility of using nuclear weapons. Do you think it’s a bluff or a possibility that shouldn’t be ruled out?
– The use of nuclear weapons would lead to a chain of reactions that would be totally unpredictable, destructive and permanently damaging. If Russia uses nuclear weapons, its cities and infrastructure will be vitrified in return. It will be the end of Russia, its people, its historical, cultural, industrial and military heritage. Is this what Putin dreams of? I don’t think he’s as mad as Pyongyang’s Doctor Strangelove.
– Volodymyr Zelensky has just obtained 61 billion dollars in military aid from the Americans. Will this be enough for Ukraine to reverse the balance of power?
– Opinions are divided. Let’s wait and see the results of European aid. Money isn’t everything. What Ukraine needs is ammunition, F-16 fighters, artillery and, beyond that, courageous, determined, proactive and militant diplomacy.
– Faced with the United States and Europe, an axis has formed: China – Russia – Iran and possibly North Korea. What interest do these countries have in allying themselves with Russia?
– It reminds me of 1939-1940 and the axis of evil: Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Japan. China, Iran and North Korea are allying themselves with Russia with a simple objective: to undermine NATO, which is wrongly seen as a threat, and to weaken the West economically, diplomatically and militarily.
– You led Eurocorps from 2013 to 2015. At the end of March polish General Jaroslaw Gromadzinski was dismissed as commander of the force on charges of spying for Russia of spying for Russia. How do you feel about this scandal?
– I was very surprised, especially as it was the first time that a Polish general had commanded the Eurocorps. But this is first and foremost an internal matter for Poland, which was quick to replace General Gromadzinski. To each his own..
– You’ve held senior military positions, and you know military strategy inside out. What do you see as the next major geopolitical axes to be fomented by armed conflict or political tension?
– A huge debate, worthy of a five-hundred-page dissertation! I think we need to look at safety issues from all angles. And not just on the military front. We need to think about everything that could, in any way, have an impact on “security”: arms control, the issues of degrowth and decarbonisation, demographics, population flows, problems linked to energy, access to food and water, etc. The list is long, endless… Only a holistic approach can lead to sustainable solutions. The list is long, endless… Only a holistic approach can lead to sustainable solutions.
BioExpress
A former officer at Belgium’s Royal Military Academy (RMA), General Guy Buchsenschmidt’s career has been marked by many highlights: operations in Kosovo and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and eight years as a lecturer in Leopard tank firing techniques, armoured formation tactics and leadership at the Belgian Royal Military Academy. He went on to take on command duties in the Belgian army, in particular heading up the Defence Strategy Department.) Before ending his career as commander of the European Rapid Reaction Corps (Eurocorps).
