A former US ambassador to Japan under the Trump administration, Kenneth R. Weinstein is outspoken in his support for the Republican candidate. A great connoisseur of American foreign policy, in this interview he details the repercussions for the rest of the world of a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.
– We are in the home stretch of the American presidential election. Which of the two candidates do you think is more likely to win? Trump or Harris?
– Kenneth R. Weinstein: At the moment, it seems to me that Donald Trump is holding the stick to win the election. However, the election will be very close, even if I am once again betting on a Trump victory.
– To what extent is the current conflict in the Middle East influencing the American election? Which of the two candidates will benefit?
– The situation in the Middle East is having an impact on the election on several levels. Firstly, what is currently happening between Israel and Iran is a reminder that the world was calmer under Donald Trump, who had a real notion of deterrence and counter-deterrence. Given his background in real estate, he is someone who has learned to put pressure on his competitors and colleagues. He has a habit of leaving the negotiating table when things do not go his way. Thanks to him, there has been no massive war in the Middle East or Europe. His presidency is the only one that the Russians have respected without annexing territory, as was the case under Obama, or today in Ukraine. Trump has an extraordinarily strong personality. He told Putin that he would attack him if he invaded Ukraine. And he was taken seriously, not least because of what he had done in killing the Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, commander of the al-Quds force within the Revolutionary Guard Corps [killed in an American strike in Iraq in 2020]. Harris’s politics are much further to the left, and more critical of Israel. Trump also made a significant effort to get closer to the Iranian Americans, who are very interventionist. Reasons why I think the Jewish vote will be in his favour.
– Many analysts believe that on the eve of this election, the United States is on the brink of Civil War. What are your thoughts on this?
– No, not at all. There is a cultural divide, as there is in France, between the capital and the rest of the country. In the USA, this contrast exists between the West Coast and the East Coast. There is also a cultural divide, as about abortion and transsexualism, which are among the issues at stake in this election campaign. This divide can be summed up as people who work with their hands versus those who work with their heads. If Trump is elected, do not kid yourself: there will be riots.
– Is Trump as temperamental and excessive as he is made out to be?
– Trump certainly does not fit into the conventional progressive clichés. He also loves to think publicly and change his mind. But he is not a temperamental or delusional man. The proof is that he knew how to manage his business. On the other hand, it is very hard-hitting and totally rejects the commonplaces repeated over and over by the right-wingers and the left-wing mainstream media. I think there is, in fact, an elite that reads the New York Times that hates Trump. And it is this kind of press that keeps this myth around him, to seduce his readers. That said, we must consider the fact that people have less and less confidence in the media.
– What does Trump think of current events in the Middle East? What line will he take if elected?
– He will take an extremely hard line against the Islamic Republic of Iran. It will let Israel do what it must do. It will also ensure that the Emirates and the Gulf states can work against Iran. There will of course be a debate within his cabinet. But what is clear is that he has no confidence in the Vienna agreements on Iran’s nuclear programme. Nor does he believe that diplomacy can achieve results with Tehran. Clearly, he believes more in sanctions.
– And what about Russia? What will its positions be?
– His idea is to recommend that the Ukrainians negotiate directly with Russia. Then he will tell the Russians to do the same with Ukraine and that if they do not, then the US will sell low-cost arms to support the Ukrainians. Once again, Trump is a man who knows how to persuade his interlocutors. It was not Biden who played the retreat card in Afghanistan. Trump was able to put pressure on the Taliban by threatening them. He sees himself as the guardian of world peace. If Europeans want to keep their borders and accept his strategy, then it will work. I will say it again: Trump is not a loser. And he has nothing against Zelensky, the reverse being true. But he knows that war is too expensive.
– Faced with China, will Trump be the warmonger he is portrayed as? Is he prepared to enter conflict to defend Taiwan?
– It is absurd! Trump will obviously put pressure on China. But above all it intends to play the deterrence card to avoid war.
– What will Kamala Harris’s foreign policy be like if she is elected? Will she be a great President?
– Kamala Harris is not a specialist in major international issues. She likes to give her opinion, to be seen as a great politician, but she does not master the substance of her issues. She’s not a woman of details. If elected, she will be a weak president on international issues. It will not be respected. All this becomes clear when you listen to him. She was chosen as vice-president because of her origins. She is known as a woman who puts on a show, rather than as a hard worker. She is particularly interested in civil rights. On international issues, if she is elected, Obama’s former team will take the lead.
BioExpress
Former President of the Hudson Institute, one of America’s leading conservative think tanks (2011-2021), and a graduate of the University of Chicago, the Institut de sciences politiques de Paris and Harvard, Kenneth R. Weinstein is considered one of the most recognised opinion leaders in the field of American foreign policy. He has worked for various commissions under four US administrations, both Republican and Democrat. He was appointed by George W. Bush to the National Council for the Humanities, and by Barrack Obama to the Broadcasting Board of Governors (forerunner of the current U.S. Agency for Global Media).
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